Thinking About the Role of Luck in Property

Most weeks as a mortgage broker in Palm Beach, I chat with people who are looking to buy their first home, or maybe upgrade

or invest. They’re usually pretty driven folks, keen to get ahead, and that’s a good thing. But it’s interesting

how often we focus so much on the planning, the saving, the strategy, and forget about something that’s always

there in the background: luck. It’s a bit of a quiet achiever, isn’t it? We don’t really like to talk about it

much when it comes to big life achievements, but it’s definitely a player in the property game.

Think about it this way. You’ve done all your homework. You’ve crunched the numbers, saved up a decent deposit, and

you’re ready to hit the ground running. Then, something totally unexpected happens. Maybe a major infrastructure

project gets announced near a suburb you were eyeing off, boosting prices. Or perhaps the reverse, an economic

downturn makes everything a bit cheaper for a while, just as you were about to buy. These aren’t things you

could have planned for, are they? They’re just... events that happen, and you either benefit from them or you

don’t.

It’s easy to look back at someone’s success and say, ‘Oh, they just worked hard,’ or ‘They were really smart with

their investments.’ And often, that’s true. Hard work and smart decisions are absolutely essential. But what we

tend to gloss over are the unforeseen opportunities or advantages that simply fell into their lap. The timing

of a career move, a change in family circumstances that opened up options, or even just being in the right

place at the right time when a unique property came onto the market. These elements of good fortune are like

tailwinds that can make all the difference, sometimes without us even realising it.

On the flip side, there’s bad luck too. You might have saved diligently for years, only for an unexpected health

issue or job loss to derail your plans. Or perhaps you bought into a seemingly solid area, just before an

unforeseen local development issue caused property values to stagnate. These aren’t due to poor planning

or lack of effort; they’re just the unpredictable bumps in the road that can hit anyone. It’s important to

acknowledge these things, not to make excuses, but to understand the full picture of how property journeys

unfold for people.

I’ve seen people who’ve done everything ‘right’ for years and still struggled to get ahead, simply because

circumstances outside their control kept pushing them back. And I’ve seen others who, through a series of

fortunate events, seemed to leap ahead with comparative ease. It’s not fair, of course. Life rarely is. But

recognising the role of luck can help us be a bit more compassionate, both towards ourselves when things

don’t go to plan, and towards others who seem to have had an easier run of it.

It also helps to frame our own efforts. We can’t control luck, obviously. But we can control our preparedness

for when good luck strikes, and our resilience when bad luck hits. If you’ve got your finances in order, a

clear idea of what you want, and a willingness to act when the time is right, you’re essentially setting

yourself up to maximise any fortunate breaks that come your way. You’re building the foundations so that when

the metaphorical wave comes, you’re ready to catch it.

Think about the sheer randomness of the property market over, say, the last twenty years. Who could have

predicted the global financial crisis, the mining boom and bust, or the recent impacts of a global health

event? These weren’t just minor ripples; they were huge shifts that altered property trajectories for

millions. If you bought just before a boom, you looked like a genius. If you bought just before a slump,

you might have felt like you made a mistake, even if all your research at the time pointed to it being a

good move.

This isn’t to say that strategy doesn’t matter. It matters immensely. Having a long-term view, understanding

your budget, getting professional advice, and being disciplined with your savings are all cornerstones

of a successful property journey. But even the best-laid plans can be influenced, for better or worse,

by factors that are simply beyond our control.

Consider something as simple as the neighbourhood you grew up in. Was it an area that saw significant

growth over time, or one that stayed relatively flat? The

intergenerational transfer of wealth, for instance, often comes down to the luck of the draw

regarding what assets your parents or grandparents happened to own, and when. It’s not always about

who worked hardest, but sometimes about what opportunities were present for previous generations to

build on.

And let’s not forget the timing of interest rate movements. A decision by a central bank to shift rates

can have a monumental impact on borrowing power and mortgage repayments. You could be on the cusp of

buying, and suddenly your capacity changes. Or you might have just locked in a good rate, and the

market shifts favourably. These are macroeconomic events, driven by complex global and local factors,

not by individual buyers’ intelligence or effort.

So, what’s the takeaway from all this talk about luck? I think it’s about perspective. It’s about being

realistic about the forces at play. It’s about focusing on what you *can* control, while also being

prepared for what you can’t. You can control your savings habits, your commitment to paying down debt,

and your willingness to learn about the market. You can control getting good advice and making informed

decisions based on the information available at the time.

But you can’t control a sudden downturn in the global economy, or a surprise government policy change,

or a meteor hitting your dream suburb. (Okay, maybe that last one’s a bit dramatic, but you get the

idea.) The trick is to build enough robustness into your plans so that when the unexpected happens, you’re

not completely knocked off course.

It also encourages a bit of humility. When things go well, it’s natural to feel proud of your hard work

and smart choices, and you absolutely should be. But it’s also worth pausing to acknowledge that perhaps

a little bit of good timing, a fortunate circumstance, or just being in the right place at the right time

played a role too. It stops us from falling into the trap of thinking our success is solely due to our own

superiority, which can sometimes make us less understanding of others’ struggles.

And when things *don’t* go to plan, despite your best efforts, it can be a comfort to know that sometimes,

it really isn’t your fault. Sometimes, the dice just roll in a way that doesn’t favour you, through no

deficiency of your own. It allows us to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and focus on adapting

to the new reality, rather than dwelling on perceived failures.

Ultimately, property is a long game, and it’s a game played on a dynamic field. While we can’t predict

or control luck, we can certainly influence our readiness for it. By being informed, financially disciplined,

and adaptable, we put ourselves in the best possible position to benefit from positive turns of events and to

weather the less fortunate ones.

It’s a balancing act, really. Doing your research, having a clear strategy, and working hard are your

non-negotiables. But keeping an open mind to the unexpected, and understanding that some things are just

beyond your sphere of influence, can make the whole journey a lot less stressful and a bit more human.

Sometimes, it’s just how the cards fall, and all you can do is play the hand you’re dealt as best you can.

If you’re finding the property journey a bit overwhelming with all these variables, both controllable

and uncontrollable, remember there are people who spend their days thinking about this stuff.

Having a chat about your unique situation and what’s possible, regardless of market shifts or

personal circumstances, can often bring a lot of clarity. It’s about putting yourself in the

best position to deal with whatever comes your way, lucky or not.